Monday, July 13, 2015

United States presidential election 2016

Background


The United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf.
Democrat Barack Obama, a former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is due to complete his second and final term in office on January 20, 2017. In the United States presidential election, 2008, Obama defeated Republican Senator John McCain from Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.[1][2] He was reelected in the 2012 election, defeating former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 62% of the electoral vote.[3] Obama is not eligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions set by the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. During his second term, President Obama's approval ratings have been listed by Gallup as between 40 and 50 percent.[4] His approval reading is widely seen as an indicator for how well the Democratic Party will do in the 2016 election.[5][6][7]

2012 election

In the 2012 election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 62% of the electoral vote.[3] A CNN article published on the day of the election listed a few examples of imprudent remarks made by Romney during the campaign, Obama's poor performance during the first presidential debate, speeches made at the parties' respective national conventions, as well as some current events (such as Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 Benghazi attack as the defining moments of the 2012 election.[8] Romney was surprised by the loss and had not prepared a concession speech until after the major networks began predicting Obama's reelection.[9]
Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election.[10] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.[11][12]

2014 midterm elections

In the United States elections for the Senate and House in 2012, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.[2] Subsequently, in the 2014 midterm elections, the Republicans won a majority of seats in both Houses of Congress, increasing their majority in the House and gaining a majority in the Senate.[13]

Primaries

Democratic Party

Campaign

Former Secretary of State and United States Senator Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat to announce a candidacy for the presidency, which she did via a video on April 12, 2015.[14] According to nationwide opinion polls in 2015, Clinton is considered the frontrunner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.[15][16] Senator Bernie Sanders became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement he was running on April 30.[17] While not the front-runner, as of July 1, Sanders's campaign stops have been drawing the largest crowds of any of the candidates in the run for president.[18] Former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race, which he did on May 30, 2015.[19] Lincoln Chafee, former Governor of Rhode Island, announced his candidacy on June 3, 2015.[20][21] Finally, former Senator Jim Webb announced his campaign on July 2, 2015.[22]

Declared

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination the Democratic Party; filed as a Democratic presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.
Candidates featured in major polls
The candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls.
Other candidates
The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

Potential candidate

The individual listed below has been identified by reliable media sources as a potential Democratic candidate for president in 2016. As of July 2015, one notable potential candidate has expressed an interest in running for President but has not taken any formal actions.
Publicly expressed interest

Republican Party

Campaign

United States Senator Ted Cruz became the first major candidate to announce a campaign in the 2016 election, which he did on March 23, 2015.[41][42] Senator Rand Paul became the next candidate to announce on April 7, 2015.[43] Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida, became the next candidate, announcing on April 13.[44][45] Both neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina announced their candidacies on May 4, 2015.[46][47] Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, announced his candidacy the next day.[48] 2012 presidential candidate and former Senator Rick Santorum announced his campaign on May 27.[49] New York Governor George Pataki was the next to announce, doing so on May 28, 2015.[50] Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina announced he was running on June 1.[51] Former Governor of Texas Rick Perry, who also ran in 2012, announced he was running again on June 4.[52] Former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush joined the race on June 15.[53] Real estate developer and reality TV host Donald Trump announced he was running on June 16.[54] Bobby Jindal, the Governor of Louisiana, announced his campaign on June 24.[55] Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is the most recent candidate to announce he was running, which he did on June 30.[56]

Declared

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party; filed as a Republican presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.
Candidates featured in major polls
Candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls.
Other candidates
The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

Potential candidates

The individuals listed below have been identified by reliable media sources as potential candidates for president in 2016. The individuals listed under "Announcement impending" plan to announce their intention to seek the presidency. As of July 2015, one notable potential candidate has expressed an interest in running for President but has not taken any formal actions.
Announcement impending
Publicly expressed interest

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a minor party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate; filed as a minor party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed by minor party and then alphabetically by surname.
Declared – Green Party
Declared – Libertarian Party
Declared – Peace and Freedom Party
Declared – independent candidates or candidates without a specified affiliation

Potential candidates

The individuals listed below have been identified by reliable media sources as potential candidates for president in 2016. The individual listed under "Formally exploring a candidacy" has formed an exploratory committee to build the groundwork for a possible presidential campaign. As of July 2015, a number of notable potential candidates have each expressed an interest in running for President but have not taken any formal actions.
Formally exploring a candidacy – Green Party
Publicly expressed interest – Green Party
Publicly expressed interest – Libertarian Party

Third party ballot access

The following third parties are guaranteed to be on the ballot in enough states to theoretically reach at least 270 electoral votes, the minimum amount required to be elected.
Constitution Party
Ballot Access: Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Wisconsin, Wyoming – (115 Electoral Votes)[118]
Green Party
Main article: Green Party of the United States
Ballot Access: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin – (296 Electoral Votes)[118][119]
Libertarian Party
Main article: Libertarian Party (United States)
Ballot Access: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming (366 electoral votes)[118]

Potential battleground states

Further information: Swing state
In every state except Maine and Nebraska, the winner of the popular vote in the state wins all of the electoral votes of the state (although state legislatures can, by law, change how votes are allocated).[120] Recent presidential campaigns have generally focused their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states.[121][122] Potential battleground states include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.[123] Democrats have discussed targeting Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as potentially competitive states.[123] Meanwhile, Republicans may also target Minnesota and New Jersey.[124] Other states may also become competitive if the close races of 2016 differ from the close races of the 2012 election, or if 2016 becomes a landslide election. Both major parties might decide to target the home states of their nominees or that of their running mates if they are from a swing state or have high favorability in the state or region.

Party conventions

Map of United States showing Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Orlando
   Philadelphia
   Philadelphia
Cleveland
Cleveland
Orlando
Orlando
Sites of the 2016 national party conventions.
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Main article: 2016 Republican National Convention
Libertarian Party
Main article: 2016 Libertarian National Convention

Debates

On April 1, 2015, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that each of the following 16 locations are under consideration to host one of the three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate:[130]
The three locations which will host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, are to be announced by the CPD in the fall of 2015.[130][131]
In June 2015, Peter Ackerman, the Green Party, the Libertarian National Committee, and Level the Playing Field sued the Federal Election Commission in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia alleging that its failure to uphold debate fairness laws and address the corruption of the CPD after multiple unresolved requests to do so intentionally excluded third parties from the election process.

Polling

General election polling
Democratic primary polling
Republican primary polling

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