The killing of Russia’s ambassador
to Turkey on Monday evening might have prompted knee-jerk comparisons
to the 1914 assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand, but it almost
certainly won’t spark a World War One-type conflict. The lethal truck attack that killed 12 in Berlin a few hours later, however, could ratchet up the prospect of yet another political shock in Europe.
2016
looks set to keep throwing out unexpected, often brutal surprises right
to its end. If 1989 – the year the Berlin wall fell – was the point at
which globalization, liberal democracy and the Western view of modernity
was seen to triumph, the year now concluding might yet be seen as when
the wheels came off.
That
may be a dramatic overstatement. However, the electoral surprises of the
Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump – as well as dozens of
other examples across the globe – are stark reminders of just how much
consensus has unraveled. The next year could see a step back towards
moderation. But it could equally see things spiral further out of
control.
The
assault on a Christmas market in the German capital has made the return
of the far right to power in Germany more plausible – even if it still
looks unlikely to happen in next year’s national vote. The Berlin deaths
could also
boost the chances of far-right National Front leader Marine LePen in France’s 2017 presidential election.
It is possible, of course, that the forces of moderation might stage something of a recovery next year – as we saw in
Austria’s presidential election, even this year extremists have not always won.
What
2016 has demonstrated most, however, is that nothing is truly
unthinkable anymore – or at least, that a host of options previously
judged unthinkable are much more likely than anyone previously thought.
What
is also clear is that we have yet to see the true implications of much
that happened in 2016. President-elect Trump is not yet in the White
House, but he – and particularly his Twitter feed – is already having a
dramatic effect.
It’s
hard to predict exactly what that might mean, but the indication so far
is that this will be a very different presidency. It may well, of
course, mean temporarily better relations with Russia – Trump’s comments
in the aftermath of Monday’s attacks explicitly tied the Ankara attack
to that in Berlin and suggested he intends to follow through on talk of
much closer collaboration with Russia, particularly on fighting Islamist
militancy. That may also imply some kind of grand bargain on Syria,
particularly with the fall of Aleppo making any opposition victory even
more implausible.
A Trump
administration, however, may well swiftly find itself much more greatly
at odds with China. Last week’s spat over the Chinese seizure of a U.S. underwater drone in the South China Sea may be a sign of things to come on that front.
The
one thing that has cemented Beijing into the international system over
the last 25 years, after all, has been that it has benefited greatly
from being part of an increasingly free international trading system –
something Trump clearly intends to push back against, if not dismantle entirely.
If British Prime Minister Theresa May is to be taken at her word, then in 2017 Brexit will really
begin to mean Brexit insofar as the UK will move to trigger Article 50 to quit the European Union. No one really knows what that will mean.
In
part, that is because no one has any concept of what the European
continent will look like politically by the end of next year. The Berlin
attack, whether the perpetrator is eventually found or not,
will almost certainly ramp up political pressure on Chancellor Angela
Merkel for her policies on migrants, just as attacks in France have
boosted LePen's National Front.
It seems less likely for now, that
Alternative for Deutschland
– the far right party that has taken up to a third of the vote in
several key German states this year – could itself topple Merkel. But
the party could perform well enough that she is replaced by another more
moderate figure, either from her own party or elsewhere in the
political mainstream.
A
European move to the far right is not inevitable – the failure of the
Austrian far right to gain the presidency demonstrates that. Still, even
the prospect that France, Germany and potentially other states might
see the far right take a dominant if not controlling role makes the
continent a very different place.
If nothing else, 2017 looks set to
see a major push back against the European – and to an extent much
broader – liberal ideal of open borders and trade. The EU itself may not
survive that.
Nor, for that matter, can the ongoing endurance of the always troubled single currency. The
Italian referendum earlier this month has left its government in a state of crisis, with the real prospect that the anti-euro
“Five Star”
movement might take control. An Italian exit might well spell the end
for the euro – at the very least, it would make Brexit seem relatively
small fry.
On Europe’s
eastern flank, meanwhile, Russia waits – sometimes interfering to try to
exacerbate political chaos and tilt things its way. Following the Trump
victory, the long-term future of NATO is also murky.
For
all the worries of inadvertent conflict after Monday’s assassination in
Ankara, it’s particularly striking that Turkey, Russia and Iran made it
clear they were making common cause and continuing with the meeting in
Moscow to discuss Syria. Turkey might still be a NATO member, but under
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may also be moving closer to Vladimir
Putin.